6 on the coaching hot seat

Football Betting Lines

09/07/2010 -

It might not be a wise choice for several NFL coaches to sit down this season. Their seats are going to be awfully hot.

Winning records are advised for John Fox, Jack Del Rio, Eric Mangini, Tom Cable, Raheem Morris and Lovie Smith, or else their tenures in charge could end in early January - if not sooner.

Fox doesn't even have a contract after 2010, even though his Panthers come off an 8-8 season and he's taken them to one Super Bowl and two NFC championship games in his eight seasons in Carolina. Mangini can look over his shoulder and see Browns president Mike Holmgren, one of the best coaches of the last 20 years, running things in Cleveland. Cable works for the unpredictable Al Davis in Oakland.

Here's a six-pack of coaches feeling the heat.

- John Fox, Carolina: When the Panthers opted to let Fox coach out his contract, it became apparent the franchise is looking to make a move if 2010 is not a memorable year. Injuries have plagued the Panthers in recent seasons, and there is plenty of transition, particularly on defense. So Fox easily could be gone in January, but don't fret: Fox will get snapped up quickly.

- Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville: Three years ago, this was a team on the rise. Now, the Jaguars can't get people into the stadium, struggle late in games and appear to be far behind the other AFC South teams.

- Eric Mangini, Cleveland: The Browns won their final four games, long after they had become irrelevant in the AFC standings, then Mangini persuaded Holmgren to give him another chance. The roster doesn't look any stronger after a 5-11 season, and unless Mangini shows some versatility in demeanor and strategy, his stay in Cleveland could end with another firing.

- Tom Cable, Oakland: Longevity as Raiders coach is a myth if your name isn't Madden or Flores. At least Cable doesn't have any personal issues cluttering the headlines this year. But with Davis pegging new quarterback Jason Campbell as another Jim Plunkett, Cable needs a bunch of victories. The Raiders haven't won more than five games in a season since 2002.

- Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay: A team in flux on both sides of the ball, and Morris fired both his coordinators in 2009. The Bucs used a one-sentence statement to say he would return for a second season. If Tampa Bay finishes in the cellar again, the 34-year-old Morris likely won't get a third year.

- Lovie Smith, Chicago: The Bears have not made the playoffs since losing the Super Bowl after the 2006 season. Trading for QB Jay Cutler was supposed to juice the offense, but it didn't work. Smith's forte is defense, but the Bears allowed 375 points a year ago.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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